06 Jun 2021 23:19:14
My (Realistic) 2021/ 22 Leafs Blueprint:

- Based on Dubas'/ Shanahan's comments, it looks more and more likely that all of Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander return. Whether that's the right decision is anyones guess - personally, I'd want to downsize and trade Marner away, opening up at least 7M in cap space (4M or so coming back in a deal), but Dubas/ Shanahan are likely banking their jobs on these four doing something next year, cause they both are likely canned if the team sells again.

So, based on this, here are some of my prediction moves:
- Leafs protect 7/ 3/ 1 in the expansion draft, exposing Justin Holl and Travis Dermott. Of the two, Dermott's cheaper but Holl's better (for now at least) and doesn't have arb rights, so I'd think Seattle takes Holl.
- Toronto only resigns Spezza (700k x 1 year), Galchenyuk (950k x 2 years) and Bogosian (1M x 1 year) .
- Toronto let's Hyman walk and he signs somewhere else (Detroit possibly to reunite with Larkin, or somewhere else with cap space) on a big time deal for 4-6 years. Toronto could probably throw like 4.5x5 at him and maybe entice him to come back, but I feel like after 5 years of failure + the chance to cash in big time somewhere else + the fact that Hyman's contract may turn into a Ladd/ Okposo type (paying a guy who relies heavily on his body into his mid 30s isn't always the best idea, no matter how great a player he is right now) may allow for both sides to move on.
- From free agency, Toronto signs:
Petr Mrazek: 3 million x 2 years.
Tomas Tatar: 2.5 million x 2 years.
Tyler Bozak: 900k x 1 year.
Brandon Saad: 4 million x 4 years.
Jamie Oleksiak: 2.5 million x 2 years.

- In terms of trades:
Toronto trades Ilya Mikheyev, a 2022 2nd Round Pick and a 2023 3rd Round Pick to New Jersey in exchange for Miles Wood.

Lineup:
Tatar (2.5) - Matthews (11) - Marner (11)
Galchenyuk (0.9) - Tavares (11) - Nylander (7)
Saad (4) - Kerfoot (3.5) - Robertson (0.9)
Wood (2.5) - Bozak (0.9) - Spezza (0.7)

Rielly (5) - Brodie (5)
Muzzin (5) - Oleksiak (2.5)
Sandin (0.9) - Bogosian (1)

Campbell (1.5)
Mrazek (3)

Total Salary (w/ o extras) : 79.8, which is enough for two league min extras like Brooks/ Malgin and Liljegren. Engvall gets waived and sent down, or can be sent to any team that really wants him - most of his salary is buriable anyway.

In terms of the new guys brought in, I know the Habs fans are going to rip me for thinking Tatar's going to work on that top line since he's a healthy scratch right now, lol, but I think if any team is going to give him a chance it'd be Toronto, since Dubas is probably going to abandon the 'physical, old man' mantra he took on for this year. I honestly don't think Tatar's going to get too much in FA even tho he had a decent year (counting stats at least), just bc he's being scratched and can't even get into the lineup with injuries to guys like Evans. I think 2.5x2 from any team seems about right, and I know he's probably not the hardest working guy, but his underlyings are good and maybe he could work.
- Saad is probably going to get less than Hyman and Coleman do this offseason, so I think Toronto snags him and fits him in on the third line like Colorado to have some depth throughout their lineup. Saad and Kerfoot provide versatility on that third line with Robertson, and it can be a slight scoring threat as well.
- Bozak prob would come back for cheap since he's been here before, Oleksiak would probably come here since he's from the city and would forever be loved for his physicality, and Mrazek got usurpsed by Ned, so a 2 year, 3 mill deal seems reasonable for a 1B guy.
- Miles Wood is a high energy young guy who can move up/ down the lineup and despite his counting stats being similar to Mikheyevs, he does a lot more. Mikheyevs an eh replacement, but the two pick price is worth it to upgrade.

Lol, it's probably not perfect, but I tried to keep it as realistic as possible. Does it seem realistic or nah?

07 Jun 2021 04:08:10
Good post. I definitely like Saad’s fit on the Leafs and think the most realistic outcome is the Leafs retaining all 4 of their moneymakers, despite what most people on this site think.

07 Jun 2021 05:21:10
Did you include Kessels 1.2 mil cap hit into this? Also those signings are a little light I feel. not all of these guys are Ontario born players in the twilight of their careers who want to play with the leafs before they retire. I think if Tatar goes that cheap for example Montreal resigns him.

07 Jun 2021 05:43:12
I HATE the Marzek deal. I think I’d rather role with Hutch as backup then pay him 3 million. I think he is awful. I’d pay Riemer and Bernier 3 million over him but I do like that post.

I would like to see Tavares and Marner moved for picks and prospects but that won’t happen.

07 Jun 2021 13:34:49
@Websjac I figure most don't think Toronto *will trade one of the 4 for 40, just that they *should.

07 Jun 2021 13:49:05
TopShelf, have you not learn anything from the habs serie? You guys have enough talented players that are better then Tatar already. You need players with the killer instinct for the playoffs. Tatar can’t even crack the Canadiens roster come playoff time. You want to get rid of a player who not only brings a killer instinct but also plays with so much intensity in Zack Hyman for Tatar? I guess you really enjoy regular season hockey!

07 Jun 2021 15:21:51
Lol the Habs have one fluke playoff run and y’all talk the most crap. The Habs remind me of the 2017 Sens. They’ll get lucky through a run then make a huge trade and start the rebuild.

07 Jun 2021 15:55:59
@Habby

Id agree with you for the Tatar deal, the only reason I think Tatar may rather leave (maybe not Toronto, but somewhere) is just cause of the scratching. I think he’ll want a confirmed job in the playoffs too, and as much as the Habs have had a ton of success w/ o him in the lineup, I think him personally would probably rather try to find another team that would play him. Also yeah, i forgot about the Kessel money lol. Still, 79.8 + 1.2 comes to 81, so its enough for the roster without extras.

@Nylander I’m not too sure how Petr plays personally, but there's a ton of goalies on the market this year. Any of Mrazek, Dreidger, Bernier or hell even Reimer who want that money I’d take. As well, Tavares has his NTC so I doubt he moves, and I also want Mitch moved, but I made this plan as a realistic one.

@JAnderson Did you read nothing that I wrote and just read the lineup? Zach Hyman, as much as I absolutely love him, did next to nothing in the playoffs. Giving him a likely 6x6 (which is prib what he gets on the open market thanks to his reg season play) with his play heavily reliant on his body is Okposo esque, which is simply not worth it. Saad at 4x4 is about the same type of player, but a but worse, can score more and is less physical, he's just very rarely talked about. And remember, Toronto tried the ‘playoff killer instinct’ route this year, and absolytely none of Foligno, Thornton, Nash and Simmonds did anything. Relying on skill + some snarl from younger guys like Miles Wood and Jamie Oleskiak is more like it imo. Again, I would love to trade Mitch Marner, truly I would, but I tried to keep this realistic based onwhat Dubas said at his presser.

07 Jun 2021 19:13:53
I don’t have a problem with them keeping those 4. If they were trading one, I’d still trade Nylander. He had a good 7 games, not being matched up against, big deal. Trade him while his value is higher, even leaf fans think he’s good, lol. I think Matthews and Marner need to be split up. They can both drive a line, Matthews will score 40 no matter who he plays with. Tavares scored 47 I think it was playing with Marner and Hyman. Marner just can’t help but look for Matthews, missing out on scoring chances because he won’t shoot the puck.

08 Jun 2021 02:21:30
Toronto17 with the best take so far.

08 Jun 2021 03:19:19
Websjac, there is no fluke when it comes to the habs success. They are a team that are built for the playoffs. With 4 big solid defensemen that clears the front of the net for Price to let him see the puck and make important saves. Up front we have arguably the best fourth line in the league with Perry-Staal- Armia. Then we have Danault who can prevent the best superstars from scoring. Add to that some guys who are willing to pay the price in front of the net and some young players with tons of talent and you have a really good balanced team. Whoever we will play against, we will be able to compete as long as we keep playing as a team. There is no fluke in wining 7 games in a row. You have to work hard to achieve that and make history like the Canadiens did tonight!

08 Jun 2021 14:27:17
@JAnderson BPF

Exactly!

08 Jun 2021 15:29:58
I can be one of the hardest leaf fans on my own team but I don’t agree with some that want to blow up the team because of this. The leafs were right there, just couldn’t close the deal. I don’t have the answers but I like the idea of Oleksiak. They could use a couple more rugged d men. I’ve said from the beginning of the year that I liked what Montreal was doing. Toffoli was obviously a great signing. Anderson is a solid signing although the term is questionable with his past injuries. I do like their defence and Price is a stud. I’m a habs fan for a few more weeks, then I will hate them again.

08 Jun 2021 17:35:53
Toronto17, i'm a habs fan as you probably know. I don’t think Leafs should blow up the team. I think it’s mostly the depth that needs to be adjusted. I also believe that Toronto is one true number one goalie away from getting past that first round and making some damages. John Campbell was not to blame at all he played very well in that Habs serie. But a goalie like John Gibson would of given you guys a better chance to win that game 7. That one bad goal allowed in game 7 gave Montreal some wings and got them the win imo.

08 Jun 2021 19:31:58
@JAnderson man you’re really saying the Habs didn’t get lucky? They were down 3-1 to the Leafs and only made it through bcuz the Leafs choked the next 4 games. They’ve looked good against Winnipeg but there’s no reason they should have made it past the first round.

08 Jun 2021 19:34:12
Goalies are a crap shot. Look at Helly vs the Habs. Make a clone of price and the leafs still lose.

08 Jun 2021 19:42:15
A goalie like Gibson would be great but all goalies allow soft goals once in a while. Campbell was great IMO. I think they need a couple solid 2 way forwards and a couple big, physical d men. I’d rather lose Reilly over Hyman and I’m ok if they let Andersen walk. Campbell and a veteran back up should do the job. Sandin will be solid IMO. Guys like Robertson and Brooks will help with salary issues. They will have a solid team for years to come, they just need the right fit of players to push them over the top.

08 Jun 2021 23:16:31
@T17 I do agree for the most part, only thing I’m just skeptical on is Hyman just bc of how so many long term contraxts for guys like him have panned out before. If Coleman came for cheaper and less term, or Saad did, I’d welcome them for sure. I think what's more important than anything is for the whole core to understand that they need to step up and that guys like Dubas/ Keefe can’t keep babysitting them and promising safety and whatever. Once a true culture is engrained in this organization, then things will change. So long as Mitch, Auston and Willy are content with this and the management keeps backing them, nothing will change. Not sayjng anyone needs to be fired, but I think Dubas and Keefe really need to stop treating them like babies all the time. Once they mature and start playing with a competitive edge and chip on their shoulder, they’ll be fine. Its just a matter of them actually changing that mental and culture imo. No amount of old guys like Jumbo and Wayne are ever going to change someones mental, it starts with them imo.

09 Jun 2021 02:24:04
When talking about the habs I forgot to mention Weber is my all time favourite defenseman.

09 Jun 2021 09:06:52
Websjac, the reason why Montreal won is they wanted it more then Toronto and worked harder for it. Did a few bounces went there way? Y’a of course I won’t deny that. But the fact that are defensemen didn’t let Toronto get to the front of the net for the most part is a huge factor. Toronto’s big guns on offense were shut down completely by Price as well but if he can see they puck he usually makes the saves. I can garante you that if Leafs would of made it to the second round they would not have been able to sweep the Jets like Montreal did. It’s time to give credit to Montreal instead of saying it’s all about luck. You make your own luck in life.