25 Dec 2021 01:16:35
To CGY:
RW-Connor Brown @3.60/UFA2023
w/50% Retained= @1.80/UFA2023

CGY Offers:
RW-Tyler Pitlick @1.75/UFA2022
LD-Yan Kuznetsov @ELC/RFA2023
LW-Emil Heineman @Signing Rights
-----OR-----
LD-Nikita Zadorov @3.75/UFA2022
C-Ilya Nikolayev @Signing Rights
CGY-3rd Round Pick-2023

----OR WITH NO RETENTION----
C Sean Monahan @6.375/UFA2023

-Calgary needs a Right Shot RW and Connor Brown would be a Great Linemate for Mangiapane:
-Option 1 provides two (2) 2nd Round Pick Prospects + Pitlick for Brown 50% retained.
-Option 2 provides a Big Russian LD/RD in Zadorov + a 3rd RD Pick + a 3rd Round Prospect for Brown 50% Retained
-Option 3 provides Sean Monahan for
Connor Brown straight across with no retention either way.

Ottawa appears to be in need of help on Left Defense and will want to go younger with either Picks and/or Prospects. Pitlick, Zadorov and Monahan are all expendable at this point and gaining more Cap Space would be ideal as well.

25 Dec 2021 05:15:55
Ottawa says no to all three. Ottawa fans are going to be upset with you now.

Monahan just isn't worth much with the way he's playing now. Even with 50% retention on Monahan I can't see Ottawa doing that trade now. A year ago they probably would have done it. Two years ago they would have jumped at it.

I really don't like the thought of trading Kuznetsov now either. We don't even know what his full potential is yet. He could turn out to be a really good defenseman in a few years. At the very least he should be a solid shutdown guy to anchor the 3rd pairing and PK. The real 1problem is if he turns out to be more than that.

25 Dec 2021 14:28:19
Perfectly said Moxnix, I think it would have to be an overpayment to convince Ottawa to trade Brown. None of those offers are enough to move the needle.

25 Dec 2021 18:36:26
Ottawa has fans!? I think I know of just one @Sens-Able ; ) jk

As always, I appreciate the feedback and education. Don't want to upset anyone, they could always make a counter offer. I guess I was focused on the fact he's a career 0.48PPG guy and 0.62PPG the last few seasons. He's having a decent year this year, but only 4 goals and Ottawa likely wants to go younger and get as much value in return for him as possible now; while his value is highest.

I'm okay to give up prospects and picks to win now. I know you value Kuznetsov, like I value Pelletier, but CGY will have to give something up to get something back. Maybe Zary's the carrot CGY dangles.

I thought OTT was interested in Monahan, but he may have regressed too much since then. I was saving Dube for another trade, but I guess he'd be the one they'd want in the trade, as he's comparable statistically if he gets the same TOI, plus compensation for retention, not that it's required. What's 1.8mil retained for 2 years worth? Two (2) 3rd RD Picks?

26 Dec 2021 04:03:49
Connor Brown is very comparable to Mangiapane with Mangi being better. They both have similar career numbers and are increasing this year.
Mangi is better and younger, but they play the same style of game.
Would you trade Mangi for 2 2nd round prospects and a 2nd (to make up difference between the two)?

26 Dec 2021 06:42:12
The reason we want Brown is to put him on a line with Mangiapane. So no you won't be getting Mangy for Brown.

26 Dec 2021 15:09:45
That’s not what I said. I said to put what you would want for Mangi and that’s a good comparable to what Ottawa would want for Brown.

26 Dec 2021 18:06:36
I wouldn't trade Mangiapane period. For Brown I'd offer more than you're suggesting.

Dillon Dube, Jusso Valimaki, Tyler Pitlick and a second round pick.

I'd add a third round pick if the Sens take Zadorov instead of Pitlick. If they take Monahan with no retention I'd make it a first (no second or third though) .

Pitlick / Zadorov would be necessary for cap reasons, both are UFA after this season. Valimaki could be replaced by picks and/ or prospects if the Sens prefer that. Dube too if they take Zadorov instead of Pitlick.

26 Dec 2021 19:44:02
Although rhetorical, I do appreciate the question/ opportunity to conduct further analysis.

I see why you feel Mang and Brown are comparable if you look at # of Games Played and Points produced, but I think we should also consider which lines they play on and their ATOI. Brown (41G+54A=95PTS-151GP/ 0.63PPG) has averaged 19.25mins/ gm the past 3 years, while Mang (52G+32A=84PTS-152GP/ 0.55PPG) played 15.30mins/ gm, so Brown has received 26% more ice time and on lines 1&2 which usually suggests he’s played with Top-6 players more often as well.

If we were to extrapolate Mang’s stats to equate Brown’s ATOI, the stats would be 66G+40A=106PTS/ 0.70PPG, but this doesn’t account for what he could have produced if he played with Top-6 players on lines 1&2. The biggest difference is that Mang (Shot%=19.77) scores goals at a 60% higher rate than Brown (Shot%=12.27) and Mang throws more than twice as many Hits as Brown also.

Next, forwards typically peak between the ages of 23-28. You did consider age and offered consideration, which is nice, but at 27, Brown is likely at his peak now and will start to regress soon, wheras Mang still has a few years of peak play and should continue to improve, so overall Mang is a lot more valuable at this point.

Now to answer your question, the Flames and Senators are in very different positions right now, one is a contender the other is years away from contending, so to send players at their peak to teams rebuilding doesn’t make much sense. It makes more sense to move your 27 and older players out for Draft Picks and Prospects that will be peaking in 3-5 years, allowing more ice time for the younger guys to showcase themselves in the NHL to find out exactly what talent they have, but keep in mind the lower they are in the standings, the higher their Draft Picks will be. The goal should be to acquire players who will peak in 3-5 years, so hopefully they are the contenders and can start signing and trading Prospects/ Picks for the veteran pieces they need to make their playoff run, which is what the Flames should be doing now.

So I think it’s best that Ottawa try to obtain Prospects and/ or Picks in return for Brown while he’s at his peak value now, as opposed to bringing in another peak player when you’re still 3-5 years away from contending OR if you want 23 year old Dillon Dube who is more comparable to Brown IMO + 2nd/ 3rd Round Pick, we can certainly discuss that, but you would need to retain 50% = 1.8mil of Brown’s contract for 2 years and take Tyler Pitlick off our hands as well.

26 Dec 2021 20:25:02
I want Connor Brown bad, so if we have to over pay to beat out another team, I would understand, but that's quite a lot @MoxNix.
I value the players as picks as follows:

Valimaki is still = mid-1st RD Pick (Picks 6-15)
Why? 90% of those picks will make and play at least 100 NHL games, which Valimaki will absolutely do.

Dube > 2nd RD Pick
Considering only 35% of 2nd RD (Picks 32-62) will play over 100 NHL games, Dube has surpassed that and is therefore worth more now. Maybe not a 1st right now, but close to it or he'll get there within the next couple years.

Zadorov = 3rd or 4th RD Pick
CGY traded a 3rd for him, but he was an RFA then. He's not a worse player now, he's just not for the Flames. Only 30% or 1/ 3 of 3rd RD Picks.

Pitlick.

26 Dec 2021 21:07:50
CGY Traded a 4th for Pitlick but considering he isn't scoring, his trade value may be lower now, yet you're still getting an NHL Regular in Pitlick when only 20% or 1/ 5 of 4th RD Picks will play 100+ NHL Games.

I understand CGY may not get these values, especially if they need to move or waive them for Cap Space, but they should try, as again they're still all Regular every day NHL Players.

26 Dec 2021 21:22:28
I value the players about the same.

What I proposed would definitely be an overpay for another team but after the chemistry Brown had with Mangiapane at the worlds I think he's worth it to the Flames.

There are roster and cap considerations too. If Pitlick goes that makes room for Pelletier, Zary or another forward prospect and frees up a little cap space. If Zadorov goes that makes room for Mackey on defense and a fair bit of cap space to pursue an upgrade somewhere. If Monahan goes that opens up quite a lot of cap space with a whole lot of options on how to spend it.

Brown 3.6M

Dube 2.3M

Pitlick 1.75M
Zadorov 3.75M
Monahan 6.375M

Not counting Valimaki's cap since he's on the farm the cap space opened up would be:

0.45m for Dube and Pitlick
2.45M for Dube and Zadorov
4.09M for Dube and Monahan

Calgary would have to bring up a player from the minors which would take 750k to maybe 900k but they can afford to do that since they have just under 1M in cap space right now.

26 Dec 2021 23:58:00
Make that 5.075M cap freed up if Dube and Monahan are the ones going to Ottawa.